Hope for Humans in the Race With Robots
Label: BusinessThe robots are coming. Resistance is futile. From car factories to microprocessor plants to fulfillment warehouses, a single robot can now handle tasks that once took hundreds of man-hours to complete. This relentless march of automation is causing economic upheaval. As time goes on, companies will become more productive and more efficient, but the amount of human labor required will decrease and the pay will be less. The sentient worker will be reduced to a relic of a simpler age.
This is what we’ve been told, anyway. To some economists, stubbornly high unemployment rates in the U.S. and Europe are at least partly attributable to the rise of machines. “There’s no question that in some high-profile industries, technology is displacing workers of all, or almost all, kinds,” wrote Paul Krugman in the New York Times on Dec. 9, adding that “many of the jobs being displaced are high-skill and high-wage.” Massachusetts Institute of Technology professor Erik Brynjolfsson, co-author of Race Against the Machine, says: “Robots are becoming more capable and skilled, and people with the same sets of skills are not as much in demand.” According to this view, robots aren’t change agents. They’re destroyers of worlds.
Yet the robot revolution doesn’t have to cause panic. While robots can claim some technological superiority over humans, even the most sophisticated machines have limitations. Automation will inevitably displace jobs, but it’s already bringing fresh economic opportunities as well. The last two decades have shown how technology can create industries even as it turns whole cities into has-beens. The ratio of jobs created to jobs eliminated by robots and where all the newfound wealth ultimately winds up are entirely dependent on how workers, businesses, and policymakers prepare for this new era.
History is punctuated with scares about automation, with industries rising and falling based on changing technologies. Toward the end of the 18th century, 90 percent of the U.S. population was involved in farming. Farmers now make up 2 percent of the domestic workforce because of innovations such as tractors and grain combines. Meanwhile, our modern economy includes people who make a living creating mobile apps, a profession that was inconceivable a generation ago.
More than any economy in the world, the U.S. has proven to be especially resilient in the face of massive technological change. Why should recent advances in robotics be any different?
One reason is the accelerating pace of change. “We have a growing mismatch between the speed of technological development and our ability to adapt to it,” says Brynjolfsson. Technological developments used to take time to work their way into society. The internal-combustion engine was developed in the latter half of the 19th century, but it displaced the horse as a means of transportation only some 50 years later. The World Wide Web, on the other hand, has upended industries in less than 20 years. Moore’s Law is faster than Otto’s cycle.
All that said, it’s too soon to write dirges for the humble human worker. In today’s workplace, there are still things that robots just can’t do. At Quiet Logistics, an order-fulfillment center for online retailers in Devens, Mass., 64 robots are used to move merchandise around the warehouse, but 330 humans are required to fold, package, and ship the products. Why not have robots do the whole thing? “People are really good at picking up things,” says Bruce Welty, Quiet Logistics’ chief executive officer. “It’s very difficult to get a robot to make the decisions required that a human makes to pick something out of a bin—particularly if there are many different things in that bin.”
Humans continue to have another advantage over robots: They remain a more flexible workforce. To handle this year’s holiday shopping season, Amazon.com (AMZN) hired 50,000 part-time workers. While seasonal, part-time labor is not something you can necessarily build an economy on, it’s worth noting that Amazon didn’t buy more robots, because you can’t hire a robot part-time (yet). What would additional robots do when demand receded? “Come January,” says Jim Tompkins, a supply-chain consultant, “all that automation’s going to be staring you in the face.”
This is the state of the robotic arts today: a point where humans and robots share labor, with robots handling the simple and repetitive and humans taking care of the complex and dynamic. Some robotics designers and engineers would like this to be a blueprint for the future, where increased automation does not necessarily displace human beings. Rodney Brooks, a former MIT robotics professor, is an optimist. To Brooks, who is also founder and chairman of robot maker Rethink Robotics, these machines are going to help workers, not compete with them. He points out that personal computers didn’t get rid of office workers, they changed the jobs people did. When it comes to robots, “it’s not a one-for-one replacement,” he says. “People are so much better at certain things.”
But robots are still in their relative infancy. As faster processors and improved sensors enhance robots’ capabilities, it’s highly possible that the peaceful coexistence between man and machine may evolve into something more competitive. “In manufacturing, there’s already a ton of innovation going on,” says Brynjolfsson. Economists like him fear that as robots get smarter, the gross domestic product will expand at a healthy clip, but that positive data would mask reduced employment and lower wages. “Can GDP continue to grow? Of course it can,” says MIT economist Frank Levy. “The question is: Can everyone benefit?”
Extrapolate this further, and the role robots play in our economy and our lives begins to provoke fundamental questions about the nature of work. We have organized our economic system around the idea that income is derived from labor. But what happens when labor is not just transferred from one group of people to another (outsourcing) but to machines?
History has never shown that a life of idle hedonism brings out the best in human beings. We excel when we are creative and productive. To ensure that continues to be the case, we can’t ignore or prevent the growth of automation, but we can bring our considerable talents to bear on determining what the future of work will look like. For the U.S., that will require innovation and entrepreneurship, but also policies that foster those things—such as an immigration policy that attracts and retains high-skilled newcomers who can help build job-creating industries, and a corporate tax rate that encourages investment in domestic opportunities and not offshore tax-haven chicanery. Critically, more of the wealth created by productivity gains needs to be channeled into a stronger system of education and training.
If the robot threat proves overblown and automation is not as transformative as is predicted or feared, then none of those efforts will have been in vain—they are answers not just to the threat of robots, but also to many other issues that challenge U.S. economic potential. “Our economy has a lot of problems,” says Northwestern University economist Robert Gordon. “If you’re looking for new problems, it’s not robots.” It makes more sense to adapt to robots’ taking our old jobs than to fight against it. Who knows? Once we figure out how to work with robots, we might even learn to love them.
Businessweek.com — Top News
Apple falls on lower shipment forecasts, muted China debut
Label: Technology(Reuters) – Apple Inc shares fell 3.9 percent on Friday after the iPhone 5 debuted in China to a cool reception and two analysts cut shipment forecasts.
Jefferies analyst Peter Misek trimmed his iPhone shipment estimates for the Jan-March quarter, saying that the technology company had started cutting orders to suppliers to balance excess inventory.
Shares of Apple suppliers Jabil Circuit Inc, Qualcomm Inc, Skyworks Solutions Inc, TriQuint Semiconductor Inc, Avago Technologies Ltd, and Cirrus Logic Inc also fell in early trading.
Apple shares have lost a quarter of their value since they hit a life high of $ 705.07 on September 21, as it faces increasing competition from phones using Google Inc’s Android operating system.
Misek cut his first-quarter iPhone sales estimate to 48 million from 52 million and gross margin expectations for the company by 2 percentage points to 40 percent.
UBS Investment Research cut its price target on Apple stock to $ 700 from $ 780 on lower expected iPhone and iPad shipments for the March quarter.
The brokerage said it was modeling more conservative growth for the world’s biggest technology company after making supply chain checks that revealed that fewer iPhones were being built.
“Some of our Chinese sources do not expect the iPhone 5 to do as well as the iPhone 4S,” UBS analyst Steven Milunovich wrote in a note to clients.
Apple launched the iPhone 5 in China on Friday, a move widely expected to bring the Cupertino-based company some respite from a recent slide in market share in China, but early reports indicated that demand may not be as great as expected.
“The iPhone 5 China launch has been surprisingly muted but (we) are unsure how much weather (snow) or the required pre-ordering (to prevent riots) are factors,” Misek said.
Apple shares fell as low as $ 508.50 in morning trading on the Nasdaq on Friday.
(Editing by Supriya Kurane)
Tech News Headlines – Yahoo! News
TLC’s “Best Funeral Ever” runs Reality TV into the ground
Label: LifestyleLOS ANGELES (TheWrap.com – TLC, which brought the world “Here Comes Honey Boo Boo” and “Sister Wives,” has hit new depths: The new one-hour special “Best Funeral Ever” will follow dead people’s journey to the grave.
The network announced Thursday that “Best Funeral Ever” will focus on the Golden Gate Funeral Home in Dallas, which prides itself on its unique theme funerals – or as Golden Gate calls them, “home-going celebrations.”
“A home-going is much different than a funeral, it’s a celebration,” Golden Gate CEO John Beckwith Jr. says of his company’s approach. “The Golden Gate experience is our version of the traditional African American home-going celebration. We do not produce generic funerals; everybody’s experience has to be different.”
In the case of “Best Funeral Ever,” that includes a Christmas-inspired funeral complete with elves, reindeer and snow and a barbecue-themed sendoff for a doo-wop singer who was well-known for a rib sauce jingle. A State Fair-themed funeral will allow a man whose disabilities prevented him from riding roller coasters to finally, um, experience the thrill rides, games and attractions he missed out on in life. (Sounds like a great sequel to “Weekend at Bernie’s.”)
“Best Funeral Ever,” which is produced by Park Slope Productions, will premiere December 26 at 8 p.m. – just in case you’re experiencing any residual Christmas cheer and need a reminder of your mortality.
TV News Headlines – Yahoo! News
APNewsBreak: Texas cancer probe draws NCI scrutiny
Label: HealthAUSTIN, Texas (AP) — The federal National Cancer Institute says it’s taking a fresh look at a troubled $ 3 billion cancer-fighting effort already being scrutinized by prosecutors and lawmakers in Texas.
The U.S. government’s cancer research agency confirmed Friday that upheaval within the Cancer Prevention and Research Institute of Texas caught its attention. NCI spokeswoman Aleea Farrakh Khan told The Associated Press that officials are “evaluating recent events” at CPRIT.
CPRIT is on an exclusive list of NCI-approved funding entities, which includes the American Cancer Society. The designation is a federal seal-of-approval that signals high peer review standards and conflict of interest policies.
Khan says NCI has made no decisions about CPRIT or contacted the agency directly.
Prosecutors are investigating CPRIT following an $ 11 million award to a private company that bypassed review.
Diseases/Conditions News Headlines – Yahoo! News
Boehner: White House willing to “slow-walk” up to “fiscal cliff”
Label: BusinessWASHINGTON (Reuters) – Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives John Boehner on Thursday again rejected President Barack Obama‘s demand for increased power to raise the U.S. debt and charged that the White House seems willing to “slow-walk our economy right up to the ‘fiscal cliff.’”
The White House and Congress face a year-end deadline to avert the so-called fiscal cliff of automatic tax hikes and budget cuts that experts fear could plunge the nation into another recession.
“The president wants to pretend spending isn’t the problem. That’s why we don’t have an agreement” to reduce the U.S. debt, Boehner, the top Republican, told a news conference.
In underscoring the stalemate in negotiations, Boehner reiterated his opposition to giving Obama the power to raise the U.S. debt limit without congressional approval.
“Congress is never going to give up our ability to control the purse,” Boehner said. “And the fact is, is that the debt limit ought to be used to bring fiscal sanity to Washington.”
Boehner seemed to brush off speculation fanned by Democrats that his concern about keeping his job was undermining efforts to cut a bipartisan deal.
“I’m not concerned about my job as speaker. I’m concerned about our kids and our grand kids,” Boehner said.
Obama is expected to discuss the “fiscal cliff” later in the day, likely cranking up pressure on Republicans to accept increased tax rates on the wealthy as part of any deal.
Boehner said it’s up to the White House to offer a balanced package.
“Republicans want to solve the problem and get this spending line down. The president wants to pretend spending isn’t the problem. That’s why we don’t have an agreement,” Boehner said.
“Unfortunately, the White House is so unserious about cutting spending that it appears willing to slow-walk our economy right up to the ‘fiscal cliff,’” Boehner added.
(Reporting by Thomas Ferraro, David Lawder, Patricia Zengerle, Richard Cowan and Rachelle Younglai; Editing by Paul Simao)
Economy News Headlines – Yahoo! News
Aides: Chavez in tough fight, may miss swearing-in
Label: WorldCARACAS, Venezuela (AP) — Somber confidants of President Hugo Chavez say he is going through a difficult recovery after cancer surgery in Cuba, and one close ally is warning Venezuelans that their leader may not make it back for his swearing-in next month.
Information Minister Ernesto Villegas said Wednesday night that Chavez was in “stable condition” and was with close relatives in Havana. Reading a statement, he said the government invites people to “accompany President Chavez in this new test with their prayers.”
Villegas expressed hope about the president returning home for his Jan. 10 swearing-in for a new six-year term, but said in a written message on a government website that if Chavez doesn’t make it, “our people should be prepared to understand it.”
Villegas said it would be irresponsible to hide news about the “delicateness of the current moment and the days to come.” He asked Venezuelans to see Chavez’s condition as “when we have a sick father, in a delicate situation after four surgeries in a year and a half.”
Moving to prepare the public for the possibility of more bad news, Vice President Nicolas Maduro looked grim when he acknowledged that Chavez faced a “complex and hard” process after his latest surgery.
At the same time, officials sought to show a united front amid the growing worries about Chavez’s health and Venezuela’s future. Key leaders of Chavez’s party and military officers appeared together on television as Maduro gave updates on Chavez’s condition.
“We’re more united than ever,” said Maduro, who was flanked by National Assembly President Diosdado Cabello and Oil Minister Rafael Ramirez, both key members of Chavez’s inner circle. “We’re united in loyalty to Chavez.”
Analysts say Maduro could eventually face challenges in trying to hold together the president’s diverse “Chavismo” movement, which includes groups from radical leftists to moderates, as well as military factions.
Tapped by the 58-year-old president over the weekend as his chosen political heir, Maduro is considered to be a member of radical left wing of Chavez’s movement that is closely aligned with Cuba’s communist government.
Cabello, a former military officer who also wields power within Chavez’s movement, shared the spotlight with Maduro by speaking at a Mass for Chavez’s health at a military base.
Just returned from being with Chavez for the operation, Cabello called the president “invincible” but said “that man who is in Havana … is fighting a battle for his life.”
After Chavez’s six-hour operation Tuesday, Venezuelan television broadcast religious services where people prayed for Chavez, interspersed with campaign rallies for upcoming gubernatorial elections.
On the streets of Caracas, people on both sides of the country’s deep political divide voiced concerns about Chavez’s condition and what might happen if he died.
At campaign rallies ahead of Sunday’s gubernatorial elections, Chavez’s candidates urged Venezuelans to vote for pro-government candidates while they also called for the president to get well.
“Onward, Commander!” gubernatorial candidate Elias Jaua shouted to a crowd of supporters at a rally Wednesday. Many observers said it was likely Chavez’s candidates could get a boost from their supporters’ outpouring of sympathy for Chavez.
Opposition leader Henrique Capriles, who lost to Chavez in the October presidential election and is running against Jaua, complained Wednesday that Chavez’s allies are taking advantage of the president’s health problems to try to rally support. He took issue with Jaua’s statement to supporters that “we have to vote so that the president recovers.”
Maduro looked sad as he spoke on television, his voice hoarse and cracked at times after meeting in the pre-dawn hours with Cabello and Ramirez. The pair returned to Venezuela about 3 a.m. after accompanying Chavez to Cuba for his surgery.
“It was a complex, difficult, delicate operation,” Maduro said. “The post-operative process is also going to be a complex and hard process.”
Without giving details, Maduro reiterated Chavez’s recent remarks that the surgery presented risks and that people should be prepared for any “difficult scenarios.”
The constitution says presidents should be sworn in before the National Assembly, and if that’s not possible then before the Supreme Court.
Former Supreme Court magistrate Roman Duque Corredor said a president cannot delegate the swearing-in to anyone else and cannot take the oath of office outside Venezuela. A president could still be sworn in even if temporarily incapacitated, but would need to be conscious and in Venezuela, Duque told The Associated Press.
If a president-elect is declared incapacitated by lawmakers and is unable to be sworn in, the National Assembly president would temporarily take charge of the government and a new presidential vote must be held within 30 days, Duque said.
Chavez said Saturday that if an election had to be held, Maduro should be elected president.
The dramatic events of this week, with Chavez suddenly taking a turn for the worse, had some Venezuelans wondering whether they were being told the truth because just a few months ago the president was running for his fourth presidential term and had said he was free of cancer.
Lawyer Maria Alicia Altuve, who was out in bustling crowds in a shopping district of downtown Caracas, said it seemed odd how Maduro wept at a political rally while talking about Chavez.
“He cries on television to set up a drama, so that people go vote for poor Chavez,” Altuve said. “So we don’t know if this illness is for that, or if it’s that this man is truly sick.”
Some Chavez supporters said they found it hard to think about losing the president and worried about the future. His admirers held prayer vigils in Caracas and other cities this week, holding pictures and singing hymns.
Chavez has undergone four cancer-related surgeries since June 2011. He has also undergone months of chemotherapy and radiation treatments. Throughout his treatments, Chavez has kept secret some details of his illness, including the exact location and type of the tumors.
Ecuadorean President Rafael Correa wished his close ally the best, while also acknowledging the possibility that cancer might end his presidency. “Chavez is very important for Latin America, but if he can’t continue at the head of Venezuela, the processes of change have to continue,” Correa said at a news conference in Quito.
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Associated Press writer Christopher Toothaker contributed to this report.
Latin America News Headlines – Yahoo! News
Review: PlayStation icons join in ‘Battle Royale’
Label: TechnologyThe holiday season is a good time to catch up with old friends. If you’re an Xbox fan, you’re probably getting reacquainted with galactic warrior Master Chief in his new adventure, “Halo 4.” If you’re a Nintendophile, you’re probably frolicking with Mario on your new Wii U.
Sony, meanwhile, has expanded its holiday guest list to invite nearly two decades worth of characters to mix it up in “PlayStation All-Stars Battle Royale” (for the PlayStation 3, $ 59.99; Vita, $ 39.99). Fans of the original PlayStation can welcome back old pals like Sir Daniel Fortesque of “MediEvil” and the title character of “Parappa the Rapper.” Younger gamers who have only known the PS3 will be happy to see Nathan Drake from “Uncharted” and Cole MacGrath from “Infamous.” Turn them loose in an assortment of game-inspired arenas and you’ve got chaos.
It’s not an original idea: Nintendo has been pitting its lovable characters against each other since 1999′s “Super Smash Bros.” As you’d expect, “All-Stars” lets up to four players choose their favorite personalities and pound on each other until one is left standing.
The technique is a change from most fighting games. Most of the time, kicking or punching your opponent doesn’t do much damage. Instead, each blow adds to an attack meter; build up enough energy and you can unleash three levels of truly deadly moves. There’s a little more strategy, but most players won’t find it too complicated.
The solo campaign is awfully skimpy, but “All-Stars” makes for a lively party when you have a few friends over. Two-and-a-half stars out of four.
— Sony’s burlap-clad goofball Sackboy is part of the “All-Stars” lineup, but he takes center stage in “LittleBigPlanet Karting” ($ 59.99).
Yes, it’s a go-kart racer — a genre that has already made room for Mario, Donkey Kong and Sonic the Hedgehog — but Sony freshens it up by giving you the ability to build your own racetracks and share them online. By exploring the game’s built-in courses, you can find hundreds of elements to add to your own, and they all share the homespun “arts-and-crafts” aesthetic of the original “LittleBigPlanet.”
Unfortunately, “LBP Karting” also revives the weird, floaty physics of its parent. That worked fine in the two-dimensional fantasy world of “LBP,” but it’s annoying when you’re behind the wheel. The tracks are filled with the power-ups, obstacles and gravity-defying leaps you’d expect in a kart racer, but the vehicles themselves feel sluggish and unresponsive. Two stars.
—Insomniac Games’ popular “lombax”-robot buddies are celebrating their 10th anniversary, both in “All-Stars” and their own “Ratchet & Clank: Full Frontal Assault” ($ 19.99). The latter game, however, is a big disappointment, stripping away most of what made the team so endearing.
It’s a “base defense” game, meaning you’re plopped down on a planet and then have to protect your turf from waves of invading enemies. That eliminates the exploration and discovery that made most of the “R&C” games so absorbing, replacing it with a tiresome cycle of building fortifications, having them destroyed, then rebuilding them. Instead of the comedy that was once this series’ trademark, you get drudgery. One star.
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Follow Lou Kesten on Twitter at http://twitter.com/lkesten
Gaming News Headlines – Yahoo! News
Media mogul and banker Allbritton dies at 87
Label: LifestyleWASHINGTON (Reuters) – Joe Lewis Allbritton, a media mogul and owner of the scandal-plagued Riggs National Bank, died on Wednesday at a hospital in Houston. He was 87.
Allbritton died of heart ailments, said Jerald Fritz, a senior vice president of Allbritton Communications.
Allbritton’s media empire included newspapers throughout the U.S. Northeast and ABC network affiliates. Allbritton’s son, Robert, recently founded the influential political publication Politico.
But Joe Allbritton, a Mississippi native, was famously known for owning and running Riggs, the Washington-based bank that had been a dominant force in diplomatic banking in the nation’s capital.
Allbritton’s banking career was tarnished when it was revealed that Riggs bank failed to report suspicious activity in the accounts held by former Chilean dictator Augusto Pinochet and Equatorial Guinea officials.
Riggs bank pleaded guilty in 2005 to violating anti-money laundering laws and was fined a total of $ 41 million.
Allbritton did not seek re-election to Riggs’ board of directors and the storied bank was eventually acquired by PNC Financial Services.
Allbritton is survived by his wife, son and two grandchildren.
(Reporting By Rachelle Younglai; Editing by Eric Beech)
Celebrity News Headlines – Yahoo! News
Fewer cancer patients pick CPR after video demo
Label: HealthNEW YORK (Reuters Health) – Dying cancer patients are less likely to want aggressive end-of-life care if they watch a short video about CPR than if they simply hear about it, according to a new study.
“These are huge differences. You will die very differently if you watch the video than if you don’t,” said Dr. Angelo Volandes, the study’s lead author from Boston’s Massachusetts General Hospital.
“All these patients had a terminal condition. It’s not like there was another treatment they were trying…So (CPR) was prolonging the dying process,” he said.
The researchers found in a group of 150 cancer patients, who were thought to have less than a year to live, 48 percent wanted CPR after being told about it, compared to 20 percent in the group who also watched a video showing compressions on a dummy and the inserting of a breathing tube.
“It’s one of the most important issues in American medicine today. People are getting medical interventions that, if they had more knowledge, they would simply not want,” said Volandes.
The new study builds off previous research with similar findings by the same group. The earlier research, however, was only conducted with brain cancer patients at one medical center.
For the new study, published in the Journal of Clinical Oncology, the researchers included a wider variety of cancer patients at four medical centers in Massachusetts, New York and Tennessee.
All of the patients who agreed to participate in the study were read a standardized description of CPR — described as pressing on their chest and using an electric shock to “get your heart to beat again if it stops.”
The description also said CPR does not revive most patients with advanced cancer, and the patient would likely be put in the ICU with a breathing machine if it worked.
The researchers then randomly selected 70 of the patients to watch a three-minute video demonstration.
In the group that was only told about CPR, about half of the 80 patients said they wouldn’t want doctors or nurses to revive them. That compared to 79 percent of the patients who also watched the video.
Nine out of every ten patients who watched the video also said it was “helpful.”
PART OF A BIGGER CONVERSATION
Volandes told Reuters Health that the video may reinforce the information patients usually get from their doctors.
“People aren’t clinicians. They don’t have clinic experience to understand what this looks like,” he said.
Dr. Susan Gaeta, an assistant professor at The University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center in Houston, told Reuters Health she likes the idea of using the videos, but said they need to be part of a bigger conversation.
“What we’re trying to do is to have conversation with patients on what their goals and values are,” said Gaeta.
She added that the question should not be, “Do you want this?” It should be, “Is this medically appropriate based on your goals and values?”
Volandes said their collection of 25 videos on various topics, including CPR and breathing tubes, are used by over 30 healthcare systems across the country.
Gaeta added that her hospital is developing their own videos that incorporate their focus of goals and values.
SOURCE: http://bit.ly/TP4qV1 Journal of Clinical Oncology, online December 10, 2012.
Diseases/Conditions News Headlines – Yahoo! News
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